This document describes the data from the Silver Bulletin 2024 Presidential Election Forecast. We update these data whenever we update our forecast.
poll_average.xlsx contains the polling averages for each
day since 7/1/2024. It includes the following columns:
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
state |
Name of the state |
modeldate |
Date of the model run |
candidate_name |
The candidate for this answer choice |
pct_estimate |
Polling average for the candidate listed in
candidate_name on modeldate |
pct_trend_adjusted |
Trendline adjusted polling average for the candidate
listed in candidate_name on modeldate |
national_topline.xlsx contains the national topline on
each day since 7/29/24. It includes the following columns:
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
modeldate |
Date of the model run |
candidate_inc |
Name of the incumbent |
candidate_chal |
Name of the challenger |
candidate_3rd |
Name of the third-party candidate |
ecwin_inc |
Chance that the incumbent will win a majority of the electoral votes |
ecwin_chal |
Chance that the challenger will win a majority of the electoral votes |
ecwin_3rd |
Chance that the third-party candidate will win a majority of the electoral votes |
ec_nomajority |
Chance that no candidate will win a majority of the electoral votes |
popwin_inc |
Chance that the incumbent will win the popular vote |
popwin_chal |
Chance that the challenger will win the popular vote |
popwin_3rd |
Chance that a third-party candidate will win the popular vote |
ev_inc, ev_inc_lo,
ev_inc_hi |
Forecasted number of Electoral College votes for the incumbent, including the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
ev_chal, ev_chal_lo,
ev_chal_hi |
Forecasted number of Electoral College votes for the challenger, including the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
ev_3rd, ev_3rd_lo,
ev_3rd_hi |
Forecasted number of Electoral College votes for the third-party candidate, including the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
national_voteshare_inc,
national_voteshare_inc_lo,
national_voteshare_inc_hi |
Forecasted national vote share for the incumbent, including the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
national_voteshare_chal,
national_voteshare_chal_lo,
national_voteshare_chal_hi |
Forecasted national vote share for the challenger, including the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
national_voteshare_3rd,
national_voteshare_3rd_lo,
national_voteshare_3rd_hi |
Forecasted national vote share for the third-party candidate, including the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
nat_voteshare_other,
nat_voteshare_other_lo,
nat_voteshare_other_hi |
Forecasted national voter turnout based on past turnout, estimates of population growth, polls about whether voters are more or less enthusiastic about the election than usual and other factors in each state. Includes the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
national_turnout,
national_turnout_lo, national_turnout_hi |
Forecasted national voter turnout based on past turnout, estimates of population growth, polls about whether voters are more or less enthusiastic about the election than usual and other factors in each state. Includes the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
state_topline.xlsx contains the state-level topline
results on each day since 7/29/24. It includes the following
columns:
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
modeldate |
Date of the model run |
candidate_inc |
Name of the incumbent |
candidate_chal |
Name of the challenger |
candidate_3rd |
Name of the third-party candidate |
state |
Name of the state |
tipping |
Tipping-point chance, the chance the state will deliver the decisive vote in the Electoral College |
vpi |
Voter power index, the relative likelihood that an individual voter in the state will determine the Electoral College winner |
winstate_inc |
Chance the incumbent will win the state |
winstate_chal |
Chance the challenger will win the state |
winstate_3rd |
Chance the third-party candidate will win the state |
voteshare_inc,
voteshare_inc_lo, voteshare_inc_hi |
Forecasted vote share for the incumbent, including the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
voteshare_chal,
voteshare_chal_lo, voteshare_chal_hi |
Forecasted vote share for the challenger, including the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
voteshare_3rd,
voteshare_3rd_lo, voteshare_3rd_hi |
Forecasted vote share for the third-party candidate, including the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
voteshare_other,
voteshare_other_lo, voteshare_other_hi |
Forecasted vote share for other candidates, including the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
margin, margin_lo,
margin_hi |
Forecasted margin for the incumbent, including the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
win_EC_if_win_state_inc |
Chance that the incumbent will win the Electoral College if they win this state |
win_EC_if_win_state_chal |
Chance that the challenger will win the Electoral College if they win this state |
win_state_if_win_EC_inc |
Chance that the incumbent will win this state if they win the Electoral College |
win_state_if_win_EC_chal |
Chance that the challenger will win this state if they win the Electoral College |
state_turnout,
state_turnout_hi, state_turnout_lo |
Forecasted state-level voter turnout based on past turnout, estimates of population growth, polls about whether voters are more or less enthusiastic about the election than usual and other factors in each state. Includes the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
pres_pollist.xlsx contains an entry for each poll, and
how much the model adjusts each poll for the house and trendline
adjustments. It includes the following columns:
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
modeldate |
Date of the model run |
state |
Name of the state |
candidate_name |
The candidate for this answer choice |
startdate |
The first day interviews were conducted for this poll |
enddate |
The last day interviews were conducted for this poll |
pollster |
The name of the pollster |
pollster_rating_id |
Unique identifier for each pollster |
samplesize |
The size of the sample |
population |
Whether the population interviewed was adults, registered voters, or likely voters |
weight |
A relative weight that describes how much this poll factors into the forecast relative to other polls |
influence |
A relative weight that describes how much this poll factors into today’s the forecast (similar to “weight”, but also takes into account how old the poll is) |
pct |
Voteshare for this candidate in this poll |
house_adjusted_pct |
Voteshare in this poll after applying the house adjustment |
trend_and_house_adjusted_pct |
Voteshare in this poll after applying both house and trendline adjustments |
tracking |
Whether or not the poll sample overlaps with other polls in our database |
poll_id |
Unique identifier for a poll |
question_id |
Unique identifier for a question |
ev_probabilities.xlsx contains the forecasted chances of
every possible Electoral College outcome. It includes the following
columns:
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
modeldate |
Date of the model run |
candidate_inc |
Name of the incumbent |
candidate_chal |
Name of the challenger |
candidate_3rd |
Name of the third-party candidate |
evprob_inc |
Chance that the incumbent wins total_ev
electoral votes |
evprob_chal |
Chance that the challenger wins total_ev
electoral votes |
evprob_3rd |
Chance that the third-party candidate wins
total_ev electoral votes |
total_ev |
Number of electoral votes in question |
voteshare_probabilities.xlsx contains the forecasted
chances of every possible popular vote outcome in each contest. It
includes the following columns:
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
modeldate |
Date of the model run |
candidate_inc |
Name of the incumbent |
candidate_chal |
Name of the challenger |
candidate_3rd |
Name of the third-party candidate |
voteshareprob_inc |
Chance that the incumbent wins voteshare
percent of the vote |
voteshareprob_chal |
Chance that the challenger wins voteshare
percent of the vote |
voteshareprob_3rd |
Chance that the third-party candidate wins
voteshare percent of the vote |
voteshare |
Percent of the popular vote in question |
state |
Name of the state |
ec_vs_popvote.xlsx contains the the probability that
each candidate will win the electoral college conditional on the popular
vote outcome. It includes the following columns:
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
modeldate |
Date of the model run |
candidate_inc |
Name of the incumbent |
candidate_chal |
Name of the challenger |
candidate_3rd |
Name of the third-party candidate |
lower_bin_text,
upper_bin_text |
A range of popular vote outcomes |
ecwin_inc, ecwin_chal,
ecwin_3rd, ecwin_nomajority |
Chance that the incumbent, challenger, 3rd party candidate or nobody will win a majority of electoral votes, conditional on the popular vote outcome falling between |
total_ev_inc, ev_inc_lo,
ev_inc_hi |
Forecasted number of Electoral College votes for the
incumbent conditional on the popular vote outcome falling between
lower_bin_text and upper_bin_text, including
the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
total_ev_chal, ev_chal_lo,
ev_chal_hi |
Forecasted number of Electoral College votes for the
challenger conditional on the popular vote outcome falling between
lower_bin_text and upper_bin_text, including
the upper and lower bounds of an 80% confidence interval |
scenario_analysis.xlsx contains the forecasted chances
of various possible election outcome scenarios. It includes the
following columns:
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
modeldate |
Date of the model run |
candidate_inc |
Name of the incumbent |
candidate_chal |
Name of the challenger |
candidate_3rd |
Name of the third-party candidate |
scenario_id |
A unique identifier for each scenario |
probability |
The forecasted chance that the scenario will happen |
scenario_description |
A description of the scenario in question |
econ_index.xlsx contains economic indicators that serve
as inputs to the forecast. It includes the following columns:
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
modeldate |
Date of the model run |
candidate_inc |
Name of the incumbent |
candidate_chal |
Name of the challenger |
candidate_3rd |
Name of the third-party candidate |
indicator |
Name of the economic indicator |
current_zscore |
Number of standard deviations from the previous 2-year average for the current value of the indicator |
projected_zscore |
Number of standard deviations from the previous 2-year average for the projected value of the indicator on Election Day |
projected_hi |
Upper bound of an 80% confidence interval for
projected_zscore |
projected_lo |
Lower bound of an 80% confidence interval for
projected_zscore |
forecast_steps.csv contains the every intermediate step
in calculating the chance of winning from the polling average in a
particular state. It includes the following columns:
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
modeldate |
Date of the model run |
candidate_inc |
Name of the incumbent |
candidate_chal |
Name of the challenger |
candidate_3rd |
Name of the third-party candidate |
state |
Name of the state |
step_no |
A value from 1 - 10 where 1 is the starting point (Polling average) and 10 is the final step (Chance of winning) |
value_inc, value_chal,
value_3rd |
The value of that step for the incumbent, challenger, and third party candidate |
weight |
The weight of the component when blending with either a regression or economic fundamentals |
step_description |
A description of each step in the process of calculating the chance of winning |
election_paths.csv contains all permutations of the 7
likeliest tipping point states based on 40,000 simulations from our
model, along with the probability of every permutation and Kamala
Harris’ chance of winning the Electoral College in each scenario. It
includes the following columns:
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
modeldate |
Date of the model run |
candidate_inc |
Name of the incumbent |
candidate_chal |
Name of the challenger |
candidate_3rd |
Name of the third-party candidate |
AZ, GA, MI,
NC, NV, PA, WI |
Whether Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsulvania, and Wisconsin were won by the Democratic or Republican candidate in the current scenario |
default_ev_inc |
The default number of electoral votes won by the incumbent candidate in the current scenario |
winner_inc |
The probability that the incumbent candidate wins the Electoral College in the current scenario |
prob |
The probability that the current scenario occurs |