But the most recent polls showed another downward lurch, as Nate Silver’s “Silver Bulletin observed on April 25: “After a string of bad polls — most recently from NYT/Siena — Donald Trump’s net approval rating in the Silver Bulletin average dropped from -5.1 at the start of the week to -7.8 today. He’s still doing better than he was at this point during his first term —Trump sat at a net approval rating of -9.2 back then. But that might not be true for much longer.”
The initial signs are not good, as Silver Bulletin reported earlier this week: “We’ve had three entirely post-Liberation Day polls. None of them are good for Donald Trump. In today’s new Navigator Research poll, 44 percent of registered voters approve of Trump and 53 percent disapprove. And the latest Morning Consult poll showed Trump with a net approval of -6. Even Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll — where Trump has gotten some of the most positive approval numbers of his second term — has him 4 points underwater.”
One of polling guru Nate Silver’s lieutenants, Eli McKown-Dawson, argues that’s potentially the case, saying their “model thinks Florida is the 7th-likeliest tipping point state — ahead of states like Nevada where the race is much more even but the number of electoral votes up for grabs is smaller.”